Sports Betting Odds |
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This section on sports betting shall focus mainly on the NFL. First lets start with the basics and learn how to read an odds sheet. Here is a section from the Suncoast for the NFL on Nov 30, 2025. Understanding sports betting, particularly in the context of the NFL, can seem daunting at first, but it becomes easier once you grasp the basics of odds sheets. Each column provides essential information, such as the teams involved, the game time, and crucially, the point spread. This aspect determines how many points a favored team is expected to win by, influencing betting strategies significantly. It's important to remember that successful betting often hinges on understanding these details, as highlighted by the saying, "It isn't whether you win or lose, it's whether you cover the spread." For further insights on betting strategies, visit slots-million-pro.com.
Let's look at each column one at a time.
- The first column of numbers is the bet number. When you make a bet the writers prefer you list the bet number but it is not required.
- The second column is the teams playing. Generally the team listed on top is the visiting team and the team listed on bottom is the home team.
- The third column is the time of the game. In Las Vegas it is based on Pacific time but Internet sportbooks use Eastern time.
- The fourth column is very important. Almost always one team will be favored to win over the other. The favored team will have a negative number in the same row, called the point spread. This is how much the favored team is expected to win by. In this example the Giants are favored to beat the Bills by 3.5 points. So, if you wish to bet on the Giants against the spread then the giants must win by 4 or more points for the bet to win. If you bet on Buffalo against the spread then the bet will win if Buffalo wins the game or loses by 3 or less points. Thus the expression, "It isn't whether you win or lose, it's whether you cover the spread." This also explains why fans are sometimes still very emotional in a lopsided game, because the outcome against the spread can still go either way. In the event the two teams are evenly matched there will be a "P" or "PK", meaning "Pick" or that you can pick who will win without a point spread. The other number is the over/under line. You may bet whether the total points in the game will go over or under this number. In both point spread and total bets the probability of winning is about 50% so the bettor must usually lay $110 to win $100, or any proportion therin. For example if I bet $22 my winnings would be $20. So try to keep these bets in increments of $11.
- The fifth column is the money line. If you wish to bet on who will win without any point spread then the money line is for you. To make it fair you must lay odds if betting on the favorite and you get odds if betting on the underdog. In the above example the money line on Buffalo the underdog is +145. That means a $100 bet will win $145, or any proportion therein. A money line on New York the favorite is -165, meaning that you must bet $165 to win $100.
- The sixth column shows the bet numbers if you wish to bet on the half time outcome.
- The seventh column shows the point spread and over/under line for the outcome at half time. In this case New York is a 1.5 point favorite and the total points is 17.5.
House Edge on Point Spread, Total, and Money Lines
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Point Spread Bets: Almost always the bettor must lay $11 to win $10. Assuming the probability of winning is 50% then the player's expected return on an $11 bet is 0.5*$10 + 0.5*-$11 = -$0.50. So an expected loss of 50 cents on an $11 bet means the house edge is 0.5/11 = 1/22 = 4.55%.
Sometimes a casino has a promotion in which players only need to add 5%, instead of 10%, against the spread. In this example the player would bet $105 to win $100, or $21 to win $10. The house edge having to lay 105 is 2.38%. Also, sometimes when a point spread is at or close to 3 or 7 and the casino wishes to make a small adjustment they will change how much one must lay, or get, on a point spread. For example suppose in the above game the casino wanted to encourage more people to bet on New York without going as far as moving the point spread to -3. They might let the New York Bettor have even money, while making the Buffalo bettor lay $120 to win $100.
- Total Bets: Like point spread bets total bets have a 50% chance of winning if picking randomly and the bettor must usually bet $11 to win $10. So the house edge is the same as point spread bets, 4.55%.
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Money Line Bets: It is my understanding that when setting money line bets the odds makers first determine a fair money line with no house edge. For example the odds makers in the New York/Buffalo game may have felt the probability of New York winning was 60.78%. A fair set of money lines would be +/- 100*.6078/(1-.6078)= +/- 155. Then the actual money lines are moved apart by an equal number in both directions, in this case +145 and -165. This degree of movement will get larger as the fair money line number increases. In closely matched games both money lines may be negative. For example if the true lines were +/- 102 and the casino moved the actual lines 10 points each the actual money lines would be -112 on the underdog and -108 on the favorite.
To determine the house edge on money line bets let me define these variables:
u = money line on underdog
f = money line on favorite
If u is positive then the house edge on the underdog is (u+f)/(f-u-200)
If u is positive then the house edge on the favorite is 100*(1+(u/f))/(200+u-f)
If u is negative then the house edge on the underdog is 1+(200*(100-u)/(400+u-f))/u
If u is negative then the house edge on the favorite is 1-((200+u-f)*(f-100)/(400+u-f))/f
In the New York/Buffalo game for example the house edge on Buffalo is 3.92% and on New York is 2.38%.
According to Las Vegas Sun columnist Jeff Haney casinos that offer the best 10-cent baseball line include the Las Vegas Club, Hard Rock, Club Fortune (Henderson), Cal-Neva (Lake Tahoe), Stardust, Luxor, Excalibur, Barbary Coast, Gold Coast, Suncoast, Orleans, El Cortez, Jerry's Nugget, and the Rio. He lists some others as well that break from 10 cents early.
Parlays
The Parlay is a way to bet on multiple sporting events with hope for a big payoff if all of them win. All picks are relative to the same point spread as in straight bets. If just one event doesn't win or draw then you lose the entire bet. If one or more event is a draw then those events are ignored. If you win all the other events you get paid according to the number of events that you did win. In the event all games bet on result in a push except one or none then the entire bet becomes a push. The following table shows the payoff according to the number of events bet on and the corresponding house edge, assuming that the probability of winning any given event is 50%. In addition the table presents the house edge of making the same number of straight bets and letting the winnings ride every time. Note that the house edge is less on the three team parlay.
House Edge on Parlay and
Consecutive Straight Bets |
Number
of Events |
Pays |
House
Edge
(Parlay Bets) |
House
Edge
(Straight Bets) |
| 2 |
13 to 5 |
10.00% |
8.88% |
| 3 |
6 to 1 |
12.50% |
13.03% |
| 4 |
10 to 1 |
31.25% |
16.98% |
| 5 |
20 to 1 |
34.38% |
20.75% |
| 6 |
40 to 1 |
35.94% |
24.36% |
Teasers
Teasers are similar to parlays except the point spread on each game moves 6, 6.5, or 7 points in the player's favor. The player pays for this in the form of much lower winnings. For example assume Baltimore is an 8 point favorite over San Francisco. If you tease Baltimore on a 6-point teaser they will only have to beat San Francisco by more than 2 points.
Buying Half a Point
The straight bet player has the option to move the point spread 1/2 point to his advantage. The cost of this half point is laying 120, as opposed to 110. The most oportune time to buy a half point is when one team is favored by 2.5, 3, 6.5, or 7. This is because many games end in a 3 or 7 point difference and the extra half point can either turn a loss into a draw or a draw into a win. However many sportbooks do not allow purchasing a 1/2 point on these spreads for exactly this reason. Over 1975 games during the 1993 to 2025 seasons the overall house edge by purchasing the extra half point is 4.13%.
SURE BETS > < VALUE BETS >
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